Thursday, August 7, 2008

The return of Bill and Bruno?

Denis Keohane at American Thinker is thinking the unthinkable for nervous Democrats on convention eve: Could Obama still lose the nomination?

Will Hillary outsmart Obama and take the nomination at the last minute?

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352 short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote as they choose.

…It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.

After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted the delegates to have full votes.

Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more importance.

If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!

…There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.

Looks like I may have to take back what I said about Obama having one real accomplishment thus far in his brief political career: Finally ridding us of Bill and his lovely wife Bruno. I should have learned by now that the Clintons never quit. We’re gonna have to burn the stump and sift the ashes before we can ever say that power couple’s career is over. Chicago politics may be tough, but Arkansas politics may just be even tougher.

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